The New York Yankees acquired outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger in a trade with the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, continuing to stock up on high-end talent in the wake of outfielder Juan Soto's free agent defection to the New York Mets.
Chicago also sent cash considerations to New York, which shipped right-hander Cody Poteet to the Cubs to complete the deal.
Sources told ESPN that the Yankees will receive $5 million to offset Bellinger's salary -- he will make $27.5 million in 2025 and has a player option for $25 million in 2026. Chicago will pay $2.5 million to cover part of Bellinger's $27.5 million salary this season. The remaining $2.5 million will either cover the contract buyout if Bellinger does not exercise his player option or go toward his $25 million salary in 2026, according to a source.
Bellinger, 29, is the 2019 National League MVP whose father, Clay, played for the Yankees from 1999 to 2001. Bellinger's return to form after three substandard seasons came in 2023 with the Cubs, and he agreed to a three-year, $80 million free agent contract with Chicago in March.
After hitting .266/.325/.426 with 18 home runs and 78 RBIs this year, Bellinger declined to opt out of the rest of his deal.
New York's acquisition of Bellinger follows the free agent signing of left-handed starter Max Fried and the trade for All-Star closer Devin Williams. Coming off a World Series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Yankees have spent the week since Soto's signing fortifying for another run.
Bellinger's versatility fits perfectly into holes in New York's lineup. He is an above-average center fielder and can either play there or in left field if the Yankees prefer to use rookie Jasson Dominguez in center. Bellinger also is a top defensive first baseman, and though Anthony Rizzo's free agency opened the position, New York could opt for an in-house option in Ben Rice or pursue Pete Alonso or Christian Walker in free agency.
At his best, Bellinger is a middle-of-the-lineup force whose bat-to-ball skills should help buttress the loss of Soto. When he won the MVP as a 24-year-old in 2019, Bellinger hit .305/.406/.629 with 47 home runs. Over his eight-year career, he has batted .259/.334/.484 with 196 home runs and 597 RBIs in 1,005 games.
The Cubs had spent the winter seeking a trade partner for Bellinger, looking to free up payroll in hopes of improving a team that went 83-79 this year. The teams spent significant time haggling over the amount of money the Cubs would include in a potential deal.
Ultimately, they settled on the $5 million figure and the 30-year-old Poteet, who started four games for the Yankees this year. In 24⅓ innings, Poteet struck out 16, walked eight and posted a 2.22 ERA. In three major league seasons split between starting and relieving, Poteet has a 3.80 ERA with 69 strikeouts, 35 walks and 13 home runs allowed in 83 innings.
Also Tuesday, the Cubs sent catcher Matt Thaiss to the Chicago White Sox for cash considerations.
MLB study identifies factors for rise in pitching injuries
Major League Baseball released a 62-page, yearlong study on pitching injuries Tuesday, identifying contributing factors to an increase in arm ailments -- including players chasing higher velocity and better "stuff" while exerting maximum effort more often, both in-game and in non-game situations.
The study identified problems occurring at both the professional and amateur levels after interviewing over 200 people within the industry, including "former professional pitchers, orthopedic surgeons, athletic trainers, club officials, biomechanists, player agents, amateur baseball stakeholders, and other experts in pitcher development."
The study made broad recommendations -- including potential rule changes -- to address the increase in pitching injuries. MLB, however, said the study was just the first step in a process that needs even more examination.
For example, tracking pitchers' training and workloads from spring training until the end of the season was an easier task for the study than during the winter months, when players are essentially on their own. This seems particularly important because the study showed that pitching injuries -- both minor and more serious -- spike during the spring, at least suggesting that pitchers aren't properly prepared for the start of spring training.
The study cited Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider being lost to Tommy John surgery in March as examples.
The league is concerned with pitchers potentially overworking themselves during the offseason in attempts to optimize "stuff" -- a term referencing the "composite movement characteristics of pitches, including horizontal and vertical break and spin rate," according to the study. Sweepers were cited as a relatively new pitch contributing to this issue. Weighted ball training was also identified as needing more study as there are mixed opinions on its contribution to injuries.
More than anything, though, the study concluded that chasing velocity is the No. 1 contributing factor to pitching injuries.
"I think there are a lot of factors," an orthopedic surgeon said in the study. "There's no question that if we take the simplest thing, which is fastball velocity, you can see how the average increase in fastball velocity has completely paralleled the increased incidence of injury. If you could take one factor, it's that."
The league also found that pitchers at the professional level are "at least somewhat aware" of the injury risks but choose the more dangerous style of pitching "because they perceive that the rewards outweigh the risks, particularly in the near-term."
This thinking might be filtering down to the amateur ranks as well.
"We understand throwing harder increases your injury risk," a pitching coach said. "That's true at a population level. Now for the overwhelming majority of human beings on Earth who aspire to play baseball at a serious level, that trade-off is worth it."
OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
In addition to the foundational issues of chasing velocity and "stuff," MLB's study uncovered tangential contributors to the rising injuries. They include, but are not limited to, the following:
Modern workload management strategies: Meant to protect pitchers, reduced workloads might actually be contributing to injuries. Pitchers tend to use max effort even more when they know they won't be in the game very long.
"I used to pitch to chase outs," a former MLB pitcher said in the study. "Now they chase velocity. I had to play a chess match to try to get 24 or 27 outs. Now it's a sprint to go as hard as you can, as long as you can. Starters have a reliever's mentality now."
The study especially found a "perceived" trend of minor league players being unprepared for a major league workload. Innings limits, more rest between appearances and restrictions on pitching on back-to-back days are likely impacting pitchers in a negative way once they reach the majors.
"When do you throw your first back-to-back?" a former pitcher wondered. "It's in the major leagues. Same with three out of four days. They're not getting exposed to it in the minor leagues. That's a lot of strain on your arm, if you're not accustomed to monitoring your warm-up pitches in the bullpen and used to the recovery afterwards to prepare yourself for the next day."
Training: Anecdotally, experts are concerned with a de-emphasis in cardiovascular and endurance training for pitchers in favor of the "power-and strength-focused training" that is more commonly prescribed in today's game compared to the past.
"There used to be starting pitchers doing endurance runs, and now we're in the power, short-burst, sprint-type training, and that's changed," one athletic trainer said. "It's okay to train for sudden bursts of power and what I'd call anaerobic training. I always tell people that's fine, but you need a basis of aerobic capacity to do that. ... We do too much of this heavy lifting, short-burst power. That's where I think we're missing it."
Prior history: Research within the study indicates that a pitcher's injury history can be a predictor for future injury. The study notes that as pitching injuries to continue to rise, and at younger ages, more and more players become susceptible to another injury as they climb the amateur and professional ranks.
"We're getting guys now out of the draft that have been throwing year-round -- our first-round guy had been throwing year-round for 3 years," one MLB athletic trainer said. "The wear and tear on him isn't going to be his first major league season, it's going to be from those previous three years."
Rule changes: The study was somewhat inconclusive as it relates to recent rule changes contributing to injuries, including the pitch clock that was instituted before the 2023 season. The evidence, according to the study, points to it not being a factor considering pitching injuries have been on the rise since the 1990s while the pace of the game has slowed down (before 2023). In fact, the slower pace may actually have contributed to more injuries as pitchers essentially took their time to throw max effort more often. That may not be happening as much with the pitch clock. Also, the trend of early season or spring training injured list placements points to the pitch clock having little to do with injuries, according to the study.
COVID: Experts within the study believe the shortened 2020 season due to COVID may have had a lasting impact on pitchers. "Unusual" training routines that season may have helped spike injury concerns over the past three seasons. The study suggests additional research is necessary to fully understand the impact.
Surgical advancements: Though medical advancements have allowed some players to return to the mound as good as ever, the study found that "incorrect perceptions" of surgery may provide a false sense of security for players. In other words, pitchers may be more willing to risk injury knowing they can always come back from it while still earning a major league paycheck and service time while on the injured list.
"They have such a faith in the Tommy John procedure, they're willing to sacrifice their own elbow knowing if they wind up tearing it, they can get it fixed," an orthopedic surgeon said. "By the way, with the new procedures going on, telling them they can get well in half the time with this internal brace phenomenon, it doesn't help at all with the relationship that pitchers have in their own mind about getting an injury.
"They don't realize that 20% of the ones who get it, don't make it back. They don't know that. They figure it's worth it, it's what I've got to do to be an elite pitcher, which is to throw 100 mph on every pitch or as hard as I can on every pitch, and take my chances, and if I get hurt, I'll get it fixed."
Amateur contributions: The study found chasing velocity and "stuff" at a younger age has been a contributing factor to the rising number of youth injuries as well. Not surprisingly, the study also found year-round training and early sport specialization as contributing factors.
"The velocity keeps going up, guys are getting bigger and stronger. As they keep getting stronger, their ligament doesn't necessarily get stronger," an orthopedic surgeon said. "I see a lot of kids. Some kids rip the bone off their elbow because their growth plate is weaker than the ligament. Instead of the ligament failing, the bone breaks off. That used to happen occasionally, but now it's happening more and more."
The transfer portal in college has been deemed a contributing factor, according to the study. Schools may have kids in their programs for short periods of time, leading to maximizing their performance during that window instead of developing them over several years.
CONCLUSIONS
Though further study on the issue is needed, according to the report, the league understands that creating a system where pitchers are "encouraged or required to moderate their activity and throw at sub-maximum effort to go deeper into games may be better for pitcher health."
Some experts suggest changes to the playing or roster rules to enact changes in training habits. For example, if there was an incentive to a player or team for the starting pitcher to last longer in a game, he might train differently -- perhaps without max effort on every pitch.
Smaller pitching staffs would inherently require starters and relievers to pitch longer in games, again potentially changing pitching habits, which might filter all the way down to the amateur levels. A limit to the number of transactions a club can make could be another way to force pitchers on the roster to adjust training habits.
The overall goal, according to the study, is a system that would "increase the value of pitcher health and durability, and decrease the value of short-duration, max-effort pitching."
Florida county votes to OK financing for new $1.3B Rays ballpark
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- After a nearly two-month delay, the Pinellas County Commission voted Tuesday in favor of its share of financing for a new $1.3 billion Tampa Bay Rays ballpark, part of a plan to keep the team in St. Petersburg for another 30 years.
The overall plan, with its slogan "Here To Stay," was approved by the county commission and city of St. Petersburg officials this summer, but votes on the funding for the deal have proven more contentious and were delayed.
Earlier this month, the St. Petersburg City Council voted to approve its share of the bonds necessary to build the new 30,000-seat ballpark. The county vote Tuesday was 5-2 for bonds that would be funded by tourist or "bed" taxes that cannot be spent on things such as hurricane recovery.
Under the agreement, the city and county would put up about half the cost, with the Rays covering the rest, including any cost overruns.
"We're upholding our part of the bargain," City Council Chair Deborah Figgs-Sanders said at a meeting earlier this month. "We said we were going to do this. We're doing it. Now what you got?"
The county's share of bond financing approved Tuesday is about $312.5 million. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred met recently with several skeptical commissioners to stress the project's importance and the league's desire to keep a team in the Tampa Bay region.
"He is committed to this market. Rob Manfred is the reason I am voting yes on this today," Pinellas County Commissioner Chris Latvala said.
The proposal caps years of uncertainty about the Rays' future, including possible moves across the bay to Tampa, or to Nashville, Tennessee, or even to split home games between St. Petersburg and Montreal, an idea Major League Baseball rejected.
Under the stadium deal, the Rays commit to remain in St. Petersburg for another 30 years. But the Rays will play this season in Tampa at the New York Yankees' spring training site, Steinbrenner Field, because of hurricane damage to Tropicana Field.
The Rays say costs of the new ballpark will inevitably rise because its planned opening will be delayed at least a year, from 2028 to 2029. It's not clear what those extra costs will be, but cost overruns are the responsibility of the Rays under the agreement.
Matt Silverman, co-president of the Rays, said in a statement after the county vote that the team "cannot absorb this increase alone" and that further negotiations are likely.
"When the county and city wish to engage, we remain ready to solve this funding gap together," Silverman said.
The proposed stadium is a signature piece of a broader $6.5 billion revitalization project known as the Historic Gas Plant District, which refers to a predominantly Black neighborhood that was forced out by construction of the Trop and an interstate highway spur.
Supporters say the development would transform an 86-acre tract in the city's downtown, with plans for a Black history museum, affordable housing, entertainment venues, plus office and retail space -- and the promise of thousands of jobs.
"This is much, much bigger than a stadium," Pinellas County Commission Chair Kathleen Peters said at a November meeting. "It's about the investment we can make and the return on that investment that can guarantee we can keep our taxes low."
Williams hopes to 'thrive off the energy' of being a Yankee
Devin Williams knew he was getting traded this offseason. He was just caught by surprise by the destination.
Williams was introduced Thursday as a member of the New York Yankees on Tuesday after a whirlwind rumor mill had him believe he was headed to another big-market behemoth on the other coast.
"I kind of thought I'd be going to L.A.," Williams, 30, said. "That was what I was being told, and the Yankees snuck in there under the table and got the deal done."
The deal was Williams to the Yankees for left-hander Nestor Cortes, prospect Caleb Durbin and cash. So, instead of joining the World Series champion Dodgers, Williams landed on the team the Dodgers defeated for the title.
For the Brewers, moving the All-Star closer before he inevitably became too expensive in free agency next offseason allowed them to extract some value. For the Yankees, he bolsters bullpen that has so far lost Clay Holmes to free agency and could have more key relievers -- Tommy Kahnle and Tim Hill -- sign elsewhere this winter.
While Yankees general manager Brian Cashman last week said Williams' role will be up to manager Aaron Boone, the right-hander with a devastating changeup known as the "Airbender" figures to slide into the closer slot that Luke Weaver, a breakout star in 2024, filled in September and through the postseason.
"I'm excited for it, man," Williams said. "They obviously have a long history with Mariano [Rivera], Aroldis [Chapman]. Those guys, they've been the best of the best. And I'm just trying to add my name to that list, hopefully. But I think it'll be good for me. I'm someone who, I thrive off the energy. I can feed off the fans."
Williams became the Brewers' closer in July 2022 after the club traded All-Star closer Josh Hader. He finished the year -- his first as an All-Star -- with a 1.93 ERA and 15 saves. In 2023, his first full season as a closer, Williams was an All-Star again and recorded a 1.53 ERA with 36 saves across 61 appearances. He then missed the first four months of the 2024 season with a stress fracture in his back before returning in late July, pitching a 1.25 ERA with 14 saves and a 43.2% strikeout rate in 22 games.
His season -- and Brewers tenure -- concluded in disappointment when he surrendered four runs in the ninth inning in the decisive Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series against the New York Mets, including a go-ahead three-run home run to Pete Alonso on his vaunted changeup.
Williams said he typically takes a vacation abroad after the season ends. After the Brewers' early playoff exit in October, however, he decided to stay in the United States, and coincidentally spent 10 days in New York City. He visited the Museum of Modern Art and the American Museum of Natural History. He enjoyed the restaurant scene. Ten days, he realized, wasn't enough to complete his tourist checklist.
He'll now have more time to explore the city. The question is whether his time in New York will stretch beyond 2025. Williams, a free agent next offseason, said he is open to a contract extension.
"I think if it's right for both sides, that's definitely always an option," Williams said. "Nothing has been discussed up until now so I can't really comment too much on that."
New Met Clay Holmes eager for chance to return to a rotation
Clay Holmes did not enter free agency determined to transition back to becoming a starting pitcher again after spending three-plus seasons as one of baseball's best relievers with the New York Yankees. But when the possibility presented itself, the two-time All-Star closer decided he would have regretted not giving it a try.
"I didn't want to look back at the end of my career and say, 'Man, what could have come from that?'" Holmes said.
Holmes was introduced Tuesday as a member of the New York Mets -- as a starting pitcher, not a reliever -- after signing a three-year, $38 million contract with a $12 million player option for the third season in 2027. The right-hander garnered interest from multiple teams both as a starter and reliever, though he has not started a game since his rookie season in 2018 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He said the Yankees did not discuss converting him to a starter.
He is one of two starting pitchers the Mets have signed this offseason, joining right-hander Frankie Montas.
"There's a lot of reasons why the Mets drew me in," Holmes, 31, said. "For one, I think the leadership here. Starts with the Cohen family and David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza. I think just seeing their leadership and their vision, their belief, is definitely something that was very appealing. I think the culture here they've created is something that I think people want to be a part of."
Drafted as a starter out of high school in 2011, Holmes explained the thought of transitioning back to starting remained in the back of his mind as he established himself as a reliever over the years. He said he found interest from overseas as a starting pitcher after the 2020 season but remained with the Pirates to begin the 2021 campaign. That summer, he was traded to New York, where he enjoyed immediate success as a setup man before becoming the club's closer in 2022.
During bullpen sessions this season he fooled around with a four-seam fastball and changeup, pitches that could compliment his elite sinker, slider and sweeper to round out a starter's arsenal. By the end of the year, he jokingly wondered if a return to starting was possible. He realized it wasn't farfetched early in the offseason when he met with teams in free agency. He found a few were open to the possibility.
"It was something that still, deep down, I had a passion for and excited me," Holmes said.
Holmes will find a familiar face helping guide his transition in Desi Druschel, whom the Mets hired away from the Yankees to become their assistant pitching coach last month. The metamorphosis will begin with a slightly different offseason training program -- more conditioning and continuing to build up stamina through January -- and require several adjustments once the season begins to manage the increased workload.
Holmes said his "intention" is to throw at least 160 innings in 2025 -- a number he has never reached as a professional. He last threw at least 100 innings in 2018 when he combined for 127⅔ frames between the minors and majors. His career high as a pro is 136⅓ innings in 2016.
"It's hard to put arbitrary numbers on things and say, 'If you get to this number, that's all you can handle,'" Holmes said. "I don't so much believe in that. I think there's definitely things you need to monitor and see. How your body's holding up and the strength and some mobility things."
Holmes won't be the first pitcher to attempt the conversion. A few reliever-turned-starters shined in 2024: Michael King, Holmes's former Yankees teammate, transitioned from shutdown reliever with New York to frontline starter with the San Diego Padres, while Seth Lugo finished second in American League Cy Young voting with the Kansas City Royals, and Reynaldo Lopez was an All-Star for the Atlanta Braves.
Each pitcher is different, with different repertoires at different stages of their careers. For Holmes, continuing his success as an elite reliever was on the table. But he couldn't turn down the opportunity to return to his roots.
"When you see guys make the transition, it's definitely like, 'Man, this is possible. This is cool,'" Holmes said. "There's kind of somewhat of a little road map. You see other guys do it. It's not super common, but you don't feel like you're in uncharted water."
Sources: Orioles, Tomoyuki Sugano agree for 1 year, $13M
Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano and the Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a contract, the team announced Monday night, uniting one of the most successful Japanese pitchers of his generation with a team in need of rotation help. The deal is for one year and $13 million, sources told ESPN.
The 35-year-old Sugano -- a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, Nippon Professional Baseball's equivalent of the Cy Young Award -- nearly came to Major League Baseball after the Yomiuri Giants posted him in December 2020. He never signed, returned to the Giants and performed almost as well this year as in his Sawamura-winning 2017 and 2018 seasons.
In 24 starts this year, Sugano went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA. Over 156 ⅔ innings, he struck out 111, walked only 16 and allowed six home runs. Though Sugano's fastball sits around 92 mph, nearly two-thirds of his pitches this year were off-speed -- a mixture of a slider, cutter, curveball and split-fingered fastball.
Baltimore has canvassed the free agent market for pitching this winter, looking to solidify its rotation with Corbin Burnes reaching free agency and right-handers Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells returning from reconstructive elbow surgeries. The Orioles head into 2025 after back-to-back postseason appearances with a rotation that includes Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and now Sugano.
Baltimore's efforts to re-sign Burnes have not abated, sources said, but the price is expected to land well beyond Chris Davis' $161 million contract -- the largest free agent deal in franchise history. The Orioles were purchased by private equity titan David Rubenstein in August after six consecutive seasons in which the team's Opening Day payroll ranked 26th or lower among MLB's 30 teams.
Between Sugano's deal and the three-year, $49.5 million contract for outfielder Tyler O'Neill, the Orioles' 2025 payroll is estimated to be around $110 million. The pitching market has proven hot in the early parts of free agency, from the top of the market (Max Fried, $218 million) to the one-year tier (Alex Cobb, $15 million).
Sugano enters his 13th season and will play in a Camden Yards that will be less pitcher-friendly than last season. The Orioles will move the left-field wall, where home runs often went to die, by as much as 20 feet in some places. Sugano has been a heavy groundball pitcher for most of his career and induced 51.1% ground balls this year.
Royals reach 1-year, $1.8 million deal with RHP Kyle Wright
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Right-hander Kyle Wright and the Kansas City Royals agreed Tuesday to a $1.8 million, one-year contract that avoided salary arbitration.
Wright will make the same salary he did last season, which he spent recovering from shoulder surgery. The Royals knew he would not pitch in 2024 when they acquired him in a trade with Atlanta, but they were willing to let him fully rehab his shoulder with an eye on putting him into the rotation for 2025.
Wright went 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA with the Braves in 2022, his last full season before the injury.
The Royals had one of the best rotations in the majors last season, headlined by All-Stars Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans. Both will be back along with Michael Wacha, who last month agreed to a $51 million, three-year deal to remain with the club.
But there is an opening after the Royals traded Brady Singer to the Reds for infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer. Wright will be competing with Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV and Noah Cameron, among others, for the job in spring training.
Six Royals remain on track to exchange proposed arbitration salaries with the team on Jan. 9: right-handers Hunter Harvey, Carlos Hernández and John Schreiber, left-hander Kris Bubic and outfielders Kyle Isbel and MJ Melendez.
Passan: 5 biggest takeaways from MLB's pitching study
In Major League Baseball's much-anticipated pitching injury report, the league spends most of the 62 pages breaking little new ground. This is by design. To address the game's rash of arm injuries with a sense of urgency, MLB couldn't undertake the years of research necessary to better explain where the sport has failed and where it must go. More than a solution, this is, quite literally, a call to arms.
Over the past year, MLB officials talked with more than 200 people: pitching coaches, athletic trainers, former big leaguers -- really anyone who might offer a nugget of insight or wisdom. Alongside bringing some clarity to the issue, MLB endeavored to answer lingering questions. Did the pitch clock cause arm injuries to soar? (There is no evidence to suggest as much.) What about the lack of sticky stuff to give pitchers a better handle on the ball? (Still unclear, though with the amount of ink devoted to the importance of grip, logic suggests it could be a factor for some.)
The larger issue is that arm injuries are a problem bigger than MLB. They exist in every crevice of the baseball universe, from college to youth baseball to the international game. This means fully dissecting the issue takes nuance and space better provided by a book, which I undertook a dozen years ago. Like the league, I came to no "aha" conclusion, beyond the brokenness inherent in a game fruitlessly trying to breed pitchers to do the very thing that gets arms hurt and the accompanying trajectory that portended trouble. In nearly a decade since "The Arm" was published, almost nothing has changed. In fact, arm injuries have gotten worse.
This report is an adequate, if banal, first step. Sound the alarms from the top, and hope to pull the right levers so a decade from now the game, at all levels, looks different. At the very least, it's an acknowledgement that this is a matter worthy of the league's time and energy. And while MLB isn't explicit in its plans going forward, the main takeaways from the report are clear.
Early-season injuries have become especially worrisome to teams
In a memo sent to executives and team medical staff with the report Tuesday, MLB outlined the next phase of its research: "a detailed examination of offseason training regimens and early-season workloads."
Injured-list placements between spring training and Opening Day have spiked precipitously in the past two years: nearly 100 in 2023 and more than 110 last year after never exceeding 80 over the previous five full seasons. And with spring training report dates less than two months away, how pitchers work in the offseason is at the forefront of clubs' minds.
Professional pitchers now strive to show up at camps in Arizona and Florida looking near-ready to pitch in the big leagues. Over what should be their offseason, they use available technology to perfect current pitches and learn new ones, and, after a long season, rest insufficiently. Early in camp, they try to impress their team with the quality of their stuff -- valuing spring measurables over staying healthy for a full season. Spring training workloads, in the meantime, have dipped, even as pitchers bypass using camp to build arm strength.
"Although well-intentioned," the report says, "this trend of reduced spring training workloads has coincided with an increase in early-season and spring training injuries, which contributes to the conclusion of some experts that pitchers are exposed to a higher risk of injury because they are not prepared for the dramatic increase in workload and intensity when the season begins."
Undertaking this sort of a study necessitates buy-in from players, trainers and teams. Years of data will be needed before any sort of conclusion -- and that is often the issue with the arm: Even data alone won't necessarily lead to a satisfying explanation. What makes the arm such a puzzle is that any number of things can ruin it.
MLB is now on the record saying the most significant causes of arm injuries are velocity, spin-chasing and maximum-effort pitching
Anyone familiar with how the arm works understands that the modern style of pitching is incompatible with arm health. Teams prize velocity and spin in the players they draft, promote and eventually keep on their rosters. If going deep into games led to better career outcomes, pitchers would adjust their behavior. It hasn't. So they don't.
Everything starts with velocity.
"Despite a direct correlation with injury risk," the report says, "average fastball velocity in MLB jumped from 91.3 mph in 2008 to 94.2 mph this year. Velocity has been pursued by pitchers because it is advantageous in achieving positive performance outcomes, can be quantified and acquired, and is valued by major league clubs. Private facilities that specialize in velocity-focused methods of training have grown in popularity."
Further, the report says, the culprits of injury proliferation include "the emphasis on optimizing 'stuff' (a term referencing the composite movement characteristics of pitches, including horizontal and vertical break and spin rate) and the modern pitcher's focus on exerting maximum effort while pitching in both game and non-game situations."
Partially at fault, the report posits, is that MLB teams' response to this has not been to change the behaviors antithetical to health but rather work around them. More teams have resigned themselves to arm injuries and instead sought roster depth, taking advantage of rules that allow them to churn their pitching staff. In each of the past four years, teams have averaged more than 32 pitchers used per season. In 2010 that number was 22.8, in 2000 22.5, in 1990 20 and in 1980 15.1.
Technology runs the game
Never does the report explicitly ask what could join velocity, spin and max-effort pitching on the Mount Rushmore of Blown-Out Elbows, but it alludes implicitly and, at times, explicitly to technology's part. This is not to suggest tech in baseball is inherently bad; on the contrary, it has done wonders for the game. But one quote in particular, from an athletic trainer, accurately reflects the environments in which pitchers are being taught.
"They'll turn around and look at the Edgertronic and TrackMan, and they're married to it," the athletic trainer said. "And they'll ask, 'Where was that? Am I tunneling?' I think it's deadly. You're challenging them on the mound to grip it, rip it. They come in and are asking, 'What's my carry?'"
First, a few definitions. An Edgertronic camera takes super-slow-motion video and allows pitchers to see how their pitch grip relates to the spin they seek on a certain pitch. TrackMan is a radar system that tracks ball flight and measures velocity and spin. Tunneling is trying to create difficult swing decisions for hitters by releasing different types of pitches from the same point. And carry is a pure-backspin fastball that isn't pulled down by gravity as much as one even slightly off-axis, giving it the illusion of rising.
To be a pitcher at almost any competitive level today means fluency in this language. This is what pitchers are taught. And because the technology provides accurate and objective numbers with which growth can be tracked, it is fully embraced by the next generation of pitchers.
The consequences of this can damage pitchers who see performance-tracking data not as a tool but as their hammer. And who can blame them? When teams are interested in pitchers, the first thing they want to see is his data. With that being the case, of course pitchers are going to focus on juicing those numbers any way possible. It's just another case of misplaced incentives running amok.
The minor leagues do not prepare pitchers for the demands of the major leagues
Twenty years ago, about 55% of major league starts and just over 50% of minor league starts came on five or fewer days' rest. In 2024, that dropped to about one-third of starts in the big leagues and barely 10% in the minor leagues. The same trend applies to relief pitchers: Big league relievers pitch on back-to-back days around 16% of the time; in the minor leagues, it's closer to 2%. Want to know why the number of major league starts going at least five innings has dropped from 85% to 70% in the past two decades? Maybe it's because over the same period, minor league starts of that length have gone from around 70% to less than 40%.
By and large, young players are no longer training -- or, better put, being trained -- to do what major league teams ask of them. One can't reasonably expect a pitcher to throw deep into games when they've trained to air it out for five innings. Going back-to-back is a physical test that far too many relievers fail because nobody bothered telling them it's an imperative skill for a big league bullpen arm.
And at the same time, the starting pitcher has been deprioritized. With the emergence of a seemingly endless supply of high-velocity relief pitchers, starters' inability to go deep into games and the fear of the third-time-through-the-order penalty, the slow death of the starting pitcher has accelerated, much to the league's discontent.
"Starting pitchers are no longer incentivized to establish their durability in games over the course of the championship season because clubs are more willing to rely on relief pitchers than ever before," the report says. "Instead, they now pursue max-effort performance over much more limited periods of time -- putting them at more substantial risk of future injury. These trends similarly raise questions about whether rule changes can be considered to make it more appealing for pitchers to prioritize durability over max-effort performance, in order to improve pitcher health."
Perhaps the easiest rules changes the league can make are limiting moves back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues and limiting the number of pitchers a team can roster, forcing starters to chase innings over stuff and strikeouts. The blowback would be strong -- from teams and players -- but when the league says the outcomes of modern pitching theory have "a noticeable and detrimental impact on the quality of the game on the field," it's the sort of damning statement that tends to prompt change.
The danger of amateur trickle down
Perhaps the most damning graphic in the report comes on page 33. It covers 11 years of pitchers at the Perfect Game National Showcase, at which the largest company in youth baseball invites the best high school juniors in the country to play in front of an endless supply of talent evaluators. In 2014, five pitchers threw at least 95 mph. Same in 2015. Over the next three years, it was seven, six, three and eight. In 2020, it doubled to 16. Since then, the report says, it has more than doubled again, to 36.
High school players are simply doing what will get them recruited to college, where they'll simply do what gets them drafted, where they'll simply do what gets them promoted. Everything filters down from the big leagues. Kids aren't using TrackMan and Rapsodo if big leaguers don't. Compound that with the encouragement by travel-ball operators to participate in year-round play via showcases, the adoption of misguided weighted-ball programs from people ill-suited to properly monitor such training tools and the straight-up ignoring of PitchSmart guidelines recommended by a panel of medical experts, and far too often, players are coming into MLB systems already broken. Twenty years ago, less than 5% of drafted pitchers had reconstructive surgery on their pitching elbow's ulnar collateral ligament, typically known as Tommy John surgery. Now, it's more than one-third.
"The risks of arm injury due to overuse largely have been ignored in favor of year-round travel baseball and showcases (a longstanding concern with amateur baseball that experts view as only worsening in recent years)," the report says. "Indeed, high-level amateur players perform year-round with intense pitching schedules that put them at greater risk of future injury. Although some suggest that current youth and amateur development models may be primarily responsible for an increase in pitcher injuries across all levels, we conclude that improving pitcher health requires both adjusting professional incentives and implementing changes to amateur baseball so that appropriate training and performance practices trickle down to the amateur level.
The report, which generally skimps on recommendations in favor of additional research, does no such thing with youth baseball. It recommends closing loopholes in PitchSmart guidelines, enforcing standards on participating tournaments and leagues, and increasing education. Even more, it suggests blackout periods that prevent professional scouts from evaluating players and allowing them proper rest and recovery during the offseason.
This is where the baseball universe must converge. All the stakeholders. For the sake of the kids. For the sake of the game. Solving arm injuries won't ever come in one fell swoop. With so many pathologies, answers are built, not found. And though it will take years to see progress, it's vital for MLB's report to be just the beginning, not a standalone effort that stops where it started.
MLB free agency tracker: Latest 2024-25 offseason trades, moves
Just like that, the 2024-25 MLB hot stove has kicked off! We had a trade just one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers hoisted the World Series championship trophy.
All eyes this winter were on the top free agent, young slugger Juan Soto, who left the New York Yankees for a record contract with the New York Mets. But he's not the only one who will make a splash in the market.
Which teams will go all-in to contend for a 2025 World Series title? Where will other top free agents such as Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman land? And who will make the trades and deals that have everyone buzzing?
Below is a running list of notable transactions and updates from throughout the MLB offseason.
Free agency, trade grades | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Notable MLB offseason transactions
Dec. 17
Yankees land Bellinger in trade with Cubs
OF/1B Cody Bellinger has been traded from the Chicago Cubs to the New York Yankees for right-handed reliever Cody Poteet, sources tell ESPN. (New York will also receive cash considerations.) Story »
Dec. 16
O's, Sugano agree on 1-year, $13M deal
Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano and the Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a contract, the team announced Monday night, uniting one of the most successful Japanese pitchers of his generation with a team in need of rotation help. The deal is for one year and $13 million, sources told ESPN. Story »
Dec. 14
A's acquire lefty Springs from Rays
The Athletics are acquiring left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a six-player trade with the Tampa Bay Rays, the team announced Saturday, continuing their push toward contention with a significant increase in their payroll as they head into their first season in Sacramento. Story » | Grades »
Dec. 13
Cubs land three-time All-Star Tucker in deal with Astros
The Chicago Cubs are acquiring Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan. Story » | Grades »
Yankees get All-Star closer Williams from Milwaukee
The New York Yankees are acquiring closer Devin Williams from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for left-hander Nestor Cortes, infield prospect Caleb Durbin and cash considerations, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan. Story » | Grades »
Dec. 11
Loáisiga returns to Yankees
Right-handed pitcher Jonathan Loáisiga and the Yankees have agreed on a one-year contract with a team option for 2026, a source tells ESPN. Story »
Red Sox trading for Crochet
The Boston Red Sox are acquiring left-hander Garrett Crochet in a trade with the Chicago White Sox for four highly-regarded prospects, sources tell ESPN's Jeff Passan. Story »
Dec. 10
Marlins, Rangers agree to trade for Jake Burger
The Texas Rangers have agreed to a trade for power-hitting corner infielder Jake Burger, sources told ESPN on Tuesday. In exchange, the Miami Marlins will receive two shortstop prospects, Echedry Vargas and Max Acosta, and a young left-handed starting pitcher in Brayan Mendoza. Story » | Grades »
Eovaldi returning to the Rangers
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers are in agreement on a three-year, $75 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Guardians and Blue Jays complete trade
The Toronto Blue Jays are finalizing a trade to acquire three-time Gold Glove-winning second baseman Andres Gimenez from the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grades »
Yankees land Fried on $218 million contract
Left-hander Max Fried and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a eight-year, $218 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in baseball history for a left-handed pitcher. Story » | Grade »
Blue Jays sign pitcher Garcia
The Toronto Blue Jays and right-hander Yimi Garcia are in agreement on a two-year, $15 million contract, a source told ESPN on Tuesday. Story »
Dec. 9
Phillies add Romano to bullpen
Closer Jordan Romano and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a free agent contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Romano was nontendered by Toronto earlier this offseason. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 8
Mets sign Soto for MLB record $765 million
Superstar outfielder Juan Soto and the New York Mets are in agreement on a 15-year, $765 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest deal in professional sports history. Story » | Grade »
Conforto joins Dodgers on $17 million deal
Outfielder Michael Conforto joined the Dodgers on a one-year deal. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 7
Giants, Adames agree on 7 years, $182M
Shortstop Willy Adames and the San Francisco Giants are in agreement on a seven-year, $182 million contract, the largest outlay in franchise history, sources told ESPN on Saturday. Story » | Grade »
O's land O'Neill
Outfielder Tyler O'Neill and the Baltimore Orioles are in agreement on a three-year, $49.5 million contract, a source told ESPN, filling a void created by the free agency of slugging outfielder Anthony Santander. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 6
Mets sign Holmes ... as a starter
Right-hander Clay Holmes and the New York Mets are in agreement on a three-year, $38 million contract with an opt-out after the second year, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan on Friday night. Story » | Grade »
Rays add catcher Jansen
Catcher Danny Jansen and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a one-year, $8.5 million contract that includes a mutual option for a second season, sources tell ESPN.
Dec. 5
A's sign Severino to franchise-record contract
Right-hander Luis Severino and the Athletics are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million free agent contract that is the largest guarantee in the franchise's history, sources told ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 3
Red Sox add Chapman to bullpen
Left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a one-year, $10.75 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Dec. 2
Cubs sign pitcher Boyd to two-year deal
The Chicago Cubs have added Matthew Boyd to their rotation in their first big offseason move, agreeing to a $29 million, two-year contract with the veteran left-hander, sources confirmed to ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Mets add to rotation with Montas signing
Right-hander Frankie Montas and the New York Mets are in agreement on a two-year, $34 million contract, sources told ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 26
Dodgers make splash with Snell signing
Left-hander Blake Snell and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on a five-year, $182 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 25
Angels add to rotation in yet another move
Left-handed starter Yusei Kikuchi is in agreement with the Los Angeles Angels on a three-year, $63 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN on Monday. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 22
Royals trade for position players
The Kansas City Royals traded right-handed pitcher Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds for infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer, the teams announced on Friday. Story » | Grades »
Nov. 20
Cubs add reliever in deal with Guardians
The Chicago Cubs are acquiring right-handed reliever Eli Morgan in a trade with the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN.
Nov. 19
Mets get outfield help in deal with Rays
The New York Mets have acquired outfielder Jose Siri from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Eric Orze. Story »
Nov. 18
Martinez accepts qualifying offer to stay with Reds
Right-hander Nick Martinez accepted the Cincinnati Reds' $21.05 million qualifying offer, multiple outlets reported Monday. Story »
Nov. 14
Angels sign infielder Newman to one-year deal
The Los Angeles Angels and infielder Kevin Newman agreed to a one-year $2.5 million contract with a club option for 2026, the team announced . Story »
Red Sox add reliever Wilson
Left-hander Justin Wilson and the Boston Red Sox have agreed to a $2.25 million, one-year contract, according to multiple reports. Story »
Nov. 12
Angels sign d'Arnaud to two-year deal
Catcher Travis d'Arnaud and the Los Angeles Angels are in agreement on a two-year, $12 million contract. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 6
Hedges returns to Guardians on one-year deal
Catcher Austin Hedges and the Cleveland Guardians are in agreement on a one-year contract, sources tell ESPN. Story »
Angels add veteran arm to rotation
Kyle Hendricks is in agreement with the Los Angeles Angels on a one-year, $2.5 million deal, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Nov. 3
Royals re-sign Wacha to 3-year deal
Right-hander Michael Wacha and the Kansas City Royals are in agreement on a three-year, $51 million contract, sources tell ESPN. The deal includes a club option and can max out at four years, $72 million. Story » | Grade »
Oct. 31
Braves make first splash of offseason
The Atlanta Braves are trading outfielder Jorge Soler to the Los Angeles Angels and will receive right-hander Griffin Canning, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grade »
Key MLB offseason dates
Dec. 9-12: Winter meetings in Dallas, Texas
Dec. 11: Rule 5 draft
Jan. 9: Deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures
End of January: Arbitration hearings begin
Feb. 22: Spring training games begin
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